Sunday, August 6, 2017

Republicans Need Legislative Victories

The Republican Party is in their most powerful position since 2004. They have control over both branches of Congress and the presidency. They controlled none of these back in 2008, but they rebuilt their party by making promises to the American people. Repealing and replacing Obamacare was one of those promises.

The health care reform failure shows that these promises may not be fulfilled. The hard work to reverse Obama's signature legislation ended with three Republican senators. They might not get a chance to repeal Obamacare again. If this was their only bill, then there's little chance the Republicans could make gains in Congress (most importantly the Senate). An opinion article for The Guardian helps explain why many conservatives are feeling right now:
Back then, repeal meant, at minimum, doing away with major parts of Obamacare: Medicaid expansion, subsidies, all the new insurance rules and regulations and taxes that the law imposed on health insurance and ordinary Americans.
Of course, it was easy to make such statements in the fall of 2015. Barack Obama was never going to sign a repeal bill, skinny or not. In hindsight, the dozens of repeal votes from Republicans in both chambers seem now to be so much political grandstanding. Moderate Republican senators who voted for full repeal in 2015 hypocritically oppose it now, and conservative senators who opposed skinny repeal in 2015 supported it on Thursday. They are all guilty of the same rank hypocrisy. 

There is a grave danger for Republicans in all of this. If there’s one thing the 2016 presidential election should have taught the GOP establishment, it’s that Americans are disgusted with politics as usual – the showboating, the sloganeering, the canned talking points and the pervasive, poisonous insincerity of it all.
Failing to repeal and replace Obamacare means that tax reform is even more critical. The GOP has to run on something in 2018. The Republican Party is the supply-side party of the United States. Every Republican in Congress supports reducing the tax burden. The big question is how.

A tax cut for the American people might seem easy, but that's until you get into the details. Let's the corporate tax cut is going to decrease the rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. There could be a divide between more moderate Republicans who want something like 30 percent and more conservative Republican who'd prefer around 10 percent. Then there's the many deductions and special tax credits. Will different Republican want to change different portions of the tax code while defending others?

In the White House, Steve Bannon (ever the populist), has been calling for a top income tax rate of 44 percent while cutting taxes for poorer Americans. This might seem like a good idea, but it's better to reduce taxes for everyone. There's no way a majority of Republicans would support his proposal.

One thing is clear: no matter the divisions, Republicans have to come together and finally pass a flagship item of legislation this year. That means President Trump has to get involved and push harder than he did for health care.

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