|Trump in Janesville, WI - TMJ4|
For one thing, Trump has never defeated Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Currently, Clinton has 50 percent while he only has 38.8 percent giving her a margin of 11.2 percentage points. The latest poll from CNN and ORC shows Clinton already wins a majority of voters. Most voters hold a negative opinion of Clinton, but they also do for Trump. Even 32 percent of registered Republicans view Trump unfavorably while only 19 percent of registered Democrats view Clinton unfavorably. While most party voters will fall behind their nominees, there will be some who vote for the opposing candidate or a third party. That's more likely among Republicans than Democrats. A few Trump supporters often say that the polls are "owned by Hillary" or something of the sort, but that simply isn't true. Polling firms become credible when data is accurate. Being biased has the potential to get elections wrong and severely damage the credibility of any firm.
Trump has trouble with minority groups that are important to win in a presidential election. The poll shows that 74 percent of nonwhite voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, as well as 53 percent of white voters. This spells disaster for him in many states and Clinton has the potential to win a victory bigger than Barack Obama's comfortable election in 2008. Just look at the southwest of the country where there is a large number of Hispanic voters. Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada all went to Obama in both elections. Arizona has leaned Republican, but it could go to Trump if he loses more independent Hispanics. Then there's the black vote, which counts in most Midwest battleground states as well as some southern states like Georgia and Louisiana. Trump has disavowed support from Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke, but only after he stumbled when pressed with earlier questions.
Trump also has problems with women. With the Wisconsin primary getting closer and closer, he did an interview with Milwaukee conservative radio host Charlie Sykes and it was heated. Sykes, who has now decided to endorse Ted Cruz, pressed the billionaire for his recent statements on Heidi Cruz. After a pro-Cruz super PAC (unaffiliated with his presidential campaign) released an ad attacking Melania Trump, the Donald responded by showing an unflattering photo of Cruz's wife. Trump believed that Cruz "started it" even though the organization that attacked his wife cannot legally coordinate with the Cruz presidential campaign. Sykes was hard on Trump for having no evidence to prove Cruz started the battle and all this conflict is going to do is make women less inclined to vote for Trump in November.
I don't see Trump as someone who will continue the legacy of Ronald Reagan when he's president. Reagan remains the largest influence on GOP policy proposals today for good reason. I don't believe we need a clone of the fortieth president, but it's foolish to think Trump is ideologically close to the Gipper. They are very far in terms of style and personality. Reagan's transformation from a Democrat to a Republican happened through research and intellectualism over a decade. Trump seemed to have transformed at the eleventh hour before 2016. His supporters claim that 2016 is going to be like 1980, but that's a lousy historical comparison. Reagan was leading against Jimmy Carter at this point in 1980, not getting destroyed by double-digits.
Trump's rhetoric in Wisconsin should raise eyebrows. When Governor Scott Walker endorsed Ted Cruz, the Donald responded by trashing Walker's record. When you're running in a Republican primary, it is unwise to attack politicians from your own party in the state. What's worse is how he attacked Walker. Trump criticized him for not raising taxes in the state and said, "Wisconsin has a lot of problems." Basically, he gave out talking points you would hear from a Madison liberal politician like the argument to continuously throw money at schools.
Several conservatives remain skeptical of Trump and there isn't a guarantee that they will rally behind him and invoke party loyalty. As political analyst Nate Silver has posted:
If you’re one of these ideological conservatives, it may even be in your best interest for Trump to lose in November. If Trump loses, especially by a wide margin, his brand of politics will probably be discredited, or his nomination might look like a strange, one-off “black swan” that you’ll be better equipped to prevent the next time around. You’ll have an opportunity to get your party back in 2020, and your nominee might stand a pretty decent chance against Clinton, who could be elected despite being quite unpopular because Trump is even less popular and who would be aiming for the Democratic Party’s fourth straight term in office.Many conservative leaders might create their own third party campaign just to deny Trump the presidency. These leaders include prominent activist Erick Erickson, businessman Bob Fischer, and George W. Bush adviser Bill Wichterman. All this evidence points to Trump easily losing the election in November. Elections can easily change the future of our country and I see politics as an investment. Voting for a candidate is an investment I make and if that candidate is elected, I expect a return on my vote through the implementation of policies I support. Since Trump is unlikely to win in November, I will not vote for him on April 5 in the Wisconsin primary.