|Trump on the campaign trail - Cleveland|
Fox News (11/16-11/19): Trump 28%, Carson 18%, Rubio 14%, Cruz 14% - Trump +10
ABC/Washington Post (11/16-11/19): Trump 32%, Carson 22%, Rubio 11%, Cruz 8% - Trump +10
Public Policy Polling (11/16-11/17): Trump 26%, Carson 19%, Cruz 14%, Rubio 13% - Trump +7
The polls are not looking good for Carson, but he is still in second place. The largest beneficiary to Carson's decrease in the polls has been Trump. In the RCP average, he has 28.5 percent against Carson's 19.7 percent. Marco Rubio has 12.7 percent and Ted Cruz has 12 percent. While Carson continues to defend himself from media attacks, the damage may have been done.
Quinnipiac University (11/16-11/22): Trump 25%, Cruz 23%, Carson 18%, Rubio 13% - Trump +2
CBS/YouGov (11/15-11/19): Trump 30%, Cruz 21%, Carson 19%, Rubio 11% - Trump +9
CNN/ORC (10/29-11/4): Trump 25%, Carson 23%, Rubio 13%, Cruz 11% - Trump +2
The fall of Carson in Iowa has corresponded with the rise of Cruz. The Texas senator could be Trump's strongest opponent. With exception of the CBS/YouGov poll, the Donald is only holding small leads. The average has Trump at 26.7 percent, Carson at 20 percent, Cruz at 18.3 percent, and Rubio at 12.3 percent.
Boston Globe/Suffolk (11/17-11/19): Trump 22%, Rubio 11%, Carson 10%, Cruz 9% - Trump +11
CBS/YouGov (11/15-11/19): Trump 32%, Rubio 13%, Cruz 10%, Carson 10% - Trump +19
Fox News (11/15-11/17): Trump 27%, Rubio 13%, Cruz 11%, Carson 9% - Trump +14
WBUR/MassINC (11/14-11/15): Trump 23%, Rubio 13%, Carson 13%, Cruz 8% - Trump +10
Trump's poll numbers are stronger in New Hampshire than in Iowa. This is revealing because it is considered to be a more moderate state. Trump's rhetoric is very conservative, yet he may have managed to build a successful coalition with moderates because of his past positions. In the average, he has 26 percent, Rubio has 12.5 percent, Carson has 10.5 percent, and Cruz has 9.5 percent. Even though they do not show up on the polls, Jeb Bush and John Kasich both have better poll numbers here than anywhere else. Maybe the main base of moderates are split between them. In 2012, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich did not win New Hampshire because they split the vote of the Tea Party allowing moderate Mitt Romney to win. This time, the Tea Party is united and the moderates are split.
CBS/YouGov (11/15-11/19): Trump 35%, Carson 19%, Rubio 16%, Cruz 13% - Trump +16
Public Policy Polling (11/7-11/8): Trump 25%, Carson 21%, Cruz 15%, Rubio 13% - Trump +4
Monmouth University (11/5-11/8): Carson 28%, Trump 27%, Rubio 11%, Cruz 9% - Carson +1
Trump still has a strong lead here as well. Carson held a small lead in the one poll, but that lead does not continue with more recent polling following his bad media coverage. On the average, Trump has 29 percent, Carson 22.7 percent, Rubio 13.3 percent, and Cruz has 12.3 percent.
CNN/ORC (10/3-10/10): Trump 38%, Carson 22%, Fiorina 8%, Rubio 7% - Trump +16
Gravis Marketing (7/12-7/13): Trump 28%, Carson 8%, Bush 7%, Rubio 5% - Trump +13
Gravis Marketing (3/27-3/27): Cruz 18%, Walker 16%, Carson 6%, Paul 5% - Cruz +2
Gravis Marketing (2/21-2/22): Walker 19%, Christie 8%, Cruz 6%, Huckabee 6% - Walker +8
Yes, that is Scott Walker in the lead from a poll early in the year. These are the only four polls on RCP. From this we can easily conclude that no one is interested in polling for the Nevada caucus yet, which is the fourth state to vote for the Republican nomination. Trump is probably still in the lead.
The most important part of this nomination contest is that Trump, a candidate who I think is a long shot based on political history, has been running an excellent campaign. I've never written Trump off as someone who couldn't win the nomination, but a candidate like him has never rose to prominence in modern American history. As the days tick by and Iowa gets close, Trump looks more and more like the presumptive Republican nominee.
At the same time, he could be the GOP's Howard Dean. In 2004, Dean was the front-runner for most of the Democratic race until just before Iowa when voters dumped him. The same happened to Rudy Giuliani in 2008. History would indicate that Trump will not be the nominee. I'm still not sure he will be, but his probability that he is has increase. Nevertheless, I'm still betting on Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. I wouldn't count out Carson just yet, but I do think there is simply no hope for all the remaining candidates.
The most important analysis of this election is the importance of how angry the GOP base is at the establishment. That's why candidates like Trump and Carson are flourishing in the polls, but they have to keep up this momentum all the way to February. Will Republicans dump the two in favor of Cruz and Rubio? We will just have to find out.